Forecasting 2026

A relatively new family tradition is to set up bingo cards with news events and family events, then to keep track throughout the year. Since that involved assembling a list of “could happen, not guaranteed” events for 2026, I decided to make a forecast over the entries. At the end of the year, I will revisit this post and score myself (Brier score, obviously). Each event gets a credence between 0 and 1, with events that happened score as 1 and that did not happen scored as 0. No updating, and I will give a brief comment on each explaining why I assess it the way I do. I did not do extensive research, so this represents a “general knowledge snapshot” more than it does a special effort on my part.

Russia-Ukraine cease-fire

Credence: 0.05

Comment: virtual stalemate on the front, intractable demands from either, unlikely that Ukraine’s military or Russia’s conomy collapses this year.

Canada export taxes on oil

Credence: 0.20

Comment: it’s one of the more aggressive economic sanctions Canada could take, it has strong opposition from Canadian oil interests, and I don’t think the US will do anything aggressive enough to warrant it.

End of Sudanese Civil War

Credence: 0.30

Comment: Neither side has been able to beat the other, foreign backers still seem pretty committed, and any settlement/partition will take over a year to mature.

Bitcoin breaks $150,000.00

Credence: 0.55

Comment: if another burst of money hits the economy this could happen.

$1B+ Marvel movie

Credence: 0.75

Comment: A billion dollars is less than it was 10 years ago, and they have an Avengers tentpole coming out this year.

New speaker of house

Credence: 0.05

Comment: No Republican wants the job and even if Dems take the house in November, it will be 2027 at least before there’s a new speaker.

New Supreme Court justice

Credence: 0.45

Comment: Thomas and Alito have a few more years of Trump to retire, but if Dems take the senate or health forces their hand it could happen.

Winds of Winter release date announced

Credence: 0.10

Comment: I think this probably never happens.

Alien life confirmed

Credence: 0.01

Comment: Not enough big Mars missions planned.

Self-driving cars commercially available

Credence: 0.05

Comment: Not this year. But “within 5 years” is finally realistic.

China invades territory not under its direct control

Credence: 0.15

Comment: Not their style.

Central American government violently overthrown

Credence: 0.30

Comment: It happens often enough, but no particular warning signs this year.

VR headsets best-selling gaming console

Credence: 0.05

Comment: Not there yet.

Putin out of office

Credence: 0.05

Comment: He’s old, but well-tended.

Poland deploys troops to aid Ukraine

Credence: 0.15

Comment: I can’t rule it out, but still seems unlikely.

Lakers NBA Champion

Credence: 0.02

Comment: Not with so many better teams out there

Michigan national sports team champion (college varsity or top level pro)

Credence: 0.10

Comment: A few outside shots but not likely

Yankees World Series Winner

Credence: 0.07

Comment: They might not even be the best in their division this year.

Macron steps down early

Credence: 0.03

Comment: French politics are pretty rough but if it was gonna happen it would have happened.

New Midwest Temperature record in US (cold or hot)

Credence: 0.10

Comment: Revert to background ‘that’s not likely in a given year.’

2026 election results lead to US Senate and House controlled by different parties

Credence: 0.80

Comment: I think it’s pretty likely both that Ds take the house and that Rs retain the senate.

GTA (Grand Theft Auto) 6 is released

Credence: 0.01

Comment: It’s a great meme at this point…

Russia invades another sovereign country

Credence: 0.14

Comment: I think they’re too busy in Ukraine, but they’re clearly considering it within the next 3-5 years.

India-Pakistan war

Credence: 0.50

Comment: a true coin flip. The last one did not resolve any of their issues, and it’s very volatile.

Iran collapses

Credence: 0.61

Comment: it’s getting worse for them every week.

Netanyahu no longer leader

Credence: 0.05

Comment: he’s too good at clinging to power.

New species of banana introduced

Credence: 0.20

Comment: the Cavendish needs rescuing or replacing soon, but unclear how soon.

Head of state assassinated

Credence: 0.40

Comment: it’s a volatile world out there.

New country is internationally recognized by 50+ countries

Credence: 0.03

Comment: with the collapse of the SLC in Yemen the most promising candidate was eliminated.

Plus/minus 1 US state

Credence: 0.01

Comment: not under this admnistration

Great Barrier Reef gains ground

Credence: 0.30

Comment: I’m being optimistic

Alive deep sea ol’ timey monster discovered

Credence: 0.03

Comment: this would be fun. Too fun.

Trumphant Arch ground broken for USA 250^th

Credence: 0.24

Comment: they’ll try, but they’re not amazing at hitting goals.

Venezuela Regime change

Credence: 0.75

Comment: we wrote this before Maduro got nabbed, but the Chavista regime is still running things. Nevertheless, I expect more instability before this settles.

2+ Gen-Z revolutions

Credence: 0.80

Comment: lots of potential. Arguable Iran is already the first one.

First commercially available AI humanoid robot

Credence: 0.10

Comment: there will be gimmicky demos, but the tech won’t be ready.

AI song tops Billboard charts

Credence: 0.15

Comment: see above.

Meter test time task continues to double every 7 months

Credence: 0.50

Comment: Expecting trends to continue ends you like Russell’s chicken, but you also shouldn’t just expect them to stop.

Kendrick Lamar wins all 9 Grammys

Credence: 0.02

Comment: how often does this happen?

Less than 10 days of poor air quality in Midwest due to Canada wildfires

Credence: 0.78

Comment: this has happened or nearly happened the last two years.

JD Vance takes on presidential powers

Credence: 0.50

Comment: this includes if Trump undergoes a procedure with anesthesia. He’s old. It could happen even without anything super dramatic.

Waymo comes to a major midwestern city

Credence: 0.34

Comment: they’re advancing fast, but the Midwest is tough for AI driving with its weather patterns.

Thailand-Cambodia border resolution

Credence: 0.26

Comment: Some credence this happens by force. Low credence for a negotiation.

S&P 500 up 15% year over year

Credence: 0.33

Comment: that would be a near repeat of 2025, but there are enough volatile and recessionary signs that a repeat of 2025 is far from locked in.

USAID gets re-funded

Credence: 0.07

Comment: I find it unlikely, there’s no constituency in this administration.

US Measles endemic

Credence: 0.22

Comment: I think it will take more years of MAHA for that to happen.